It has long been thought that to avoid irreversible climate change and damage to the environment, we must not allow temperatures to increase by more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times [3]. If the earth’s temperature rises by more than 2 degrees Celsius scientists have predicted that catastrophic climate change could occur, including mass flooding and drought leading to millions of climate refugees. However, this benchmark is now in question, particularly as it seems increasingly difficult to get nations to sign legally binding agreements that ensure they implement effective measures for reducing the likelihood of temperatures rising too much.
Scientists around the world are warning that our ability to keep an increase in temperature at below 2 degrees is almost impossible now. Kevin Anderson from the University of Manchester argues, “There is little to no chance of maintaining the rise in global surface temperatures at below 2 degrees” [1].
Some argue that a worst-case scenario would see a 4 degrees rise in surface temperatures by 2060 [1]. The result of doing absolutely nothing is thought to be a rise in global surface temperatures of around 7 degrees [2]. Arguably this is very extreme, but if it is a possibility then it is something that surely should be taken into consideration when developing policies to reduce the likelihood of irreversible climate change?
The main changes that need to happen across the globe is the reduction of green house gases through cleaner energy use and an overall reduction in energy use, which may be very difficult with an ever increasing population that are using more and more energy.
One of the main concerns with increasing surface temperatures is that strong feedbacks that affect the climate could be kicked into action. Feedbacks work to accentuate the effect that is already occurring. For example, increasing surface temperatures result in more ice melting in areas such as the Arctic. Due to the reflectivity (albedo) of ice and snow, sunlight is reflected away from the surface, reducing the warming effect and therefore the likelihood of it melting. However, increasing surface temperatures will result in more ice melting, decreasing the surface area that has the ability to reflect sunlight back from the earth’s surface. The ocean or land that is exposed under the melting ice and snow has a lower albedo, which means that it absorbs more of the sunlight and adds to the heating of the earth’s surfaces. The effect of feedbacks such as these could mean that certain thresholds will be crossed and irreversible change could occur, for example the permanent loss of ice in the Arctic during the summer [2].
Even though there is still uncertainty over whether such changes will occur, if there is a slight chance that they can, surely it is vitally important to implement effective legislation to mitigate against such changes occurring? The latest UN Climate Change talks are taking place this week in Cancun, which again focuses attention on the possibility of reaching international agreement on such legislation, particularly if it is made legally binding. Non-binding agreements emerged from the talks in Copenhagen, but the fact that they are non-binding is arguably very important. Countries and nations need to understand the importance of climate change legislation, and non-binding agreements don’t exert the much needed pressure. The likelihood of legally binding agreements emerging from Cancun seems remote, however Michael Jacobs, writing for the Guardian, argues that it is not all doom and gloom. Even though legally binding agreements seem to be a distant vision at the moment, countries are individually already doing their own thing to tackle climate change and this is what is important [4]. Therefore, while the pressure must be kept on for global agreements we must not dismiss the importance of unilateral efforts closer to home.
References
[1] Kevin Anderson (2010) cited by The Guardian [Online]. Available from http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/nov/29/climate-change-scientists-4c-temperature
[2] Louise Gray (2010) The Telegraph [Online]. Available from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8165927/Cancun-climate-change-summit-temperatures-could-rise-4C-by-2060.html
[3] Cahal Milmo (2007) The Independent [Online]. Available from http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming-say-scientists-402800.html
[4] Michael Jacobs (2010) The Guardian [Online]. Available from http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2010/nov/29/cancun-climate-change-copenhagen
