In the coming decades the world will face huge challenges as the population is increasing dramatically whilst the resources needed to support them rapidly decline. Within twenty years vast changes are required in order to avoid what scientists have termed ‘The Perfect Storm’.

What is ‘The Perfect Storm’?

In order to sustain the rapidly growing global population, the world will need to produce 50% more energy, 50% more food and 30% more fresh water by 2030. This needs to be achieved whilst also mitigating and adapting to climate change. Scientists refer to this as a ‘perfect storm’ of global events [1].

The ‘perfect storm’ scenario poses a number of important questions for scientists:

1. Can the growing population be fed healthily, fairly and sustainably?
2. Can we handle the increased water demands in the future?
3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the increasing population?
4. Can all this be done while we mitigate and adapt to climate change?

The drivers behind the ‘perfect storm’ scenario are examined below.

Population Increase

By 2050 the global population is predicted to rise to around 9 billion, with an increase of 6 million people per month [2]. Additionally, by 2030 the world population living in cities will increase from 50% to 60% [3]. The population increase combined with continued rural-urban migration will put huge stresses on a number of cities. In fact, it is estimated that the number of megacities (cities with over 10 million inhabitants) will increase from 19 to 29 by 2025 [1].

Economic Changes

In the coming decades, economic advances in the developing world will help increase prosperity and lift millions of people out of poverty. However, this will add to the problem because as people’s incomes rise, they are likely to increase their consumption of resources (i.e. energy, food and water) [1].

Demand for Food

An increase in population and prosperity will increase the food demand in the 21^st century. For example, between 2000 and 2030 there is predicted to be an 85% increase in meat demand and a 50% increase in cereals demand [4]. Furthermore, the increase in food demand in the 21^st century will be made worse by the greater constraints on land, water and energy use [1].

Demand for Energy

Between 2006 and 2030, energy demand is estimated to increase by 45% [5]. Some of this demand can be met by using ‘green’ energy sources such as biofuels for transport and biomass for heat and electricity, but the competition for land and crops is likely to cause conflict between the energy and food sectors [6].

Demand for Water

Total global water demand is projected to increase by 35 to 60% between 2000 and 2025 [7]. It has also been estimated that, by 2030, water demand for agriculture alone will increase by over 30% [7]. Already over 1 billion people live in areas affected by water scarcity and many more will be affected as global water demand increases [8].

Climate Change

Global temperatures are rising and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. This will have an impact on water and food in all regions. Rising sea levels and flooding will have an impact on water quality for many people, and will be most dramatic at delta regions, which are important for food production [1]. Many of the less developed countries depend on ocean food webs and ecosystems. However, climate change is causing oceans to become warmer, more acidic, less diverse and over-exploited (e.g. over fishing) [1].

Summary

The rapidly growing global population is creating an increased demand for energy, water and food, but is being faced with fewer resources and is also having to cope with climate change. To make matters worse, the drivers behind the ‘perfect storm’ scenario are inextricably linked and the demands must be met using fewer resources. For example, the increased food demand must be met on less land, using less water, fertiliser and pesticides than we have ever done before. More land will be needed for food production, but more land will also be needed for urbanisation and energy production (through biofuels and biomass). Another example is that more water is needed for the agricultural sector whilst more water is also needed for the growing cities [1].

Whilst mitigating and adapting to climate change, we need to be able to sustainably manage the growing demand for energy and water, and produce enough food for the increasing population. It is clear that significant change is needed within the next twenty years in order to prevent the ‘perfect storm’ of events from occurring.

[1] Beddington, J. (2009) Food, Energy, Water and the Climate: A Perfect Storm of Global Events? London: Government Office for Science.

[2] UNPD (2006) World Population Projections, The 2006 Revision. New York: United Nations Population Division.

[3] UNPD (2007) World Urbanisation Prospects, The 2007 Revision. New York: United Nations Population Division.

[4] World Bank (2008) Annual World Development Report. New York: World Bank.

[5] IEA (2008) World Energy Outlook 2008. Paris: International Energy Agency.

[6] Mitchell, D. (2008) A Note on Rising Food Prices. New York: World Bank.

[7] Shen, Y., Oki, T., Utsumi, N., Kanae, S. & Hanasaki, N. (2008) Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: water withdrawal. Hydrological Sciences, 53 (1) p. 11-13.

[8] IWMI (2007) Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. London: Earthscan.