The world’s population doubled between 1959 and 1999 from 3 to 6 billion and, based on current projections, it will be nearing 9 billion by the year 2040 [1]. This will put further pressure on essential resources such as supplies of food, water and energy and we are likely see an increase in malnutrition and disease [1]. The demand for more resources will also result in pressures to increase deforestation to produce more living space and more farming land to meet the increase in food demand. This will result in the loss of valuable wildlife habitats and increase air and water pollution along with exacerbating climate change. All these changes are argued to add an extra 40% – 50% of pressure onto global environmental issues [2].
Whilst an increasing population will undoubtedly contribute to the effects described above, there are arguments that population size is not the main problem; it is exacerbated by the excessive use of resources by the rich of the world. George Monbiot, who writes for the Guardian, argues that it is not the rising population that is the problem, but the rising rate of consumption [2]. Monbiot points out that the global rate of economic growth before the recession was 3.8%; population growth currently stands at 1.2% and is therefore responsible for only one-third of normal economic growth [2]. The majority of economic growth is driven by rising consumption [2].
Many people argue that population growth is exponential and that it is one of the most serious threats that face us today. For example, Jonathon Porritt states that there is the possibility of a “demographic nightmare” [4]. However, arguably this is not the case and for the past three decades, the average number of babies being born to women in the most of the world has actually declined [3]. Now, women have on average 2.6 children, but forty years ago this figure was much higher at about 5 to 6 children [3]. Arguably, this change is concentrated much more in the developed and richer nations but it is not exclusive. Women in Bangladesh now have an average of just 3 children and in India the average is 2.8 children [3]. Even though it is projected that by 2040 the world’s population will reach 9 billion [1], this growth is expected to level off and reduce to 8.5 billion by 2100 [2].
So while population growth undoubtedly places stresses on the environment, it is arguably our rising consumption rate that is the most worrying trend. Most consumption is coming from wealthy countries that have long since said goodbye to a rapidly rising population. For example, 4% of the population is represented by Americans, yet they consume 25% of all resources [1]. While reducing the population growth rate in developing countries can be important to giving women a better quality of life and lead to less demand on limited resources, the developed nations should not use this as a smoke screen to ignore the changes that they can implement in their own societies.
Carbon dioxide emissions are one of the greatest concerns that we are facing in the battle to reduce the effects of climate change, yet if we look at who produces the most emissions, it is the smaller populations of the developed world. For example, half of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions are produced by 7% of the world’s richest populations. 7% of carbon dioxide emissions are produce by the poorest 50% of the world’s population [3]. It is predicted that by 2050, the world’s economy will have grown by 400% and less than one 10th of this will be due to population growth [3]. If current rates continue, we will need a second earth by 2030 to meet our existing needs [5]. Surely this is a stark indication that there is something more than population growth that needs examining in the efforts to reduce environmental degradation?
References
[1] www.environment.about.com (2010).
[2] Monbiot, G. (2009) Cutting Consumption is more important than limiting population [Online]. Available from www.guardian.co.uk
[3] http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/2010/03/the-overpopulation-myth (2010).
[4] Williams, A. (2007) The Enemies of Progress, The Dangers of Sustainability. Societas, Exeter, (p.104).
[5] www.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/index (2010).
